Impact risk

The short answer is no. The long answer is more interesting.

Apophis once held the highest impact rating ever given to an asteroid. That is why it is famous, and why the fear outlived the facts. The risk is gone — properly, measurably gone — but the story of how it disappeared is worth knowing, because it is a rare case of a planetary threat being eliminated by observation alone.

December 2004: the highest rating ever recorded

Within days of its recovery, Apophis reached level 4 on the Torino scale — the only object ever to do so. At its peak the calculated probability of an Earth impact in 2029 was about 2.7 percent, roughly one chance in thirty-seven. That number was not alarmism; it was an honest reflection of a short observation arc. A few more nights of data, and precovery images from March 2004, shrank the uncertainty and dropped the 2029 impact probability to zero.

The keyhole problem

Ruling out 2029 did not end the matter. A close pass bends an orbit, and there were narrow regions of space — keyholes, some only a few hundred metres across — that Apophis could have threaded in 2029 in a way that would set up an impact on a later return, in 2036 or 2068. Threading one was always unlikely, but it could not be excluded while the orbit was known only to within a few kilometres.

2013 and 2021: radar closes the question

Optical astronomy measures direction well and distance poorly. Radar does the opposite, and that is what settled it. Goldstone and Arecibo observations during the 2013 approach eliminated 2036. In March 2021, a final Goldstone radar campaign during a distant pass pinned the orbit precisely enough to eliminate 2068 and everything behind it. NASA removed Apophis from the Sentry risk table on 26 March 2021. The observation arc now runs from March 2004 to April 2022, across 7,370 measurements.

What 2029 actually is

A safe pass at 31,640 kilometres above the surface — closer than the geostationary satellites, but nearly five Earth radii out. There is no atmospheric interaction, no debris, no tidal effect on Earth, and no risk to satellites beyond a negligible chance of a chance encounter. What there is, is the best opportunity in modern history to study an asteroid of this size at close range without leaving the ground.

Questions about the risk

Could new observations bring the risk back?

For 2029 and the next century, no. The orbit is now measured precisely enough that the uncertainty is far smaller than any plausible impact corridor. Beyond a hundred years, predictions degrade for every asteroid, Apophis included; that is a limitation of physics, not a hidden warning.

What about 2036 and 2068 — I read those were impact dates?

They were once candidate dates while the orbit was still loosely known. 2036 was eliminated in 2013, 2068 in 2021. Articles predating those dates are still online and still quoted, which is why the myth persists.

Will it hit a satellite?

Almost certainly not. Apophis passes about 4,100 km below the geostationary belt, and while it crosses the altitudes used by some other satellites, space at that scale is overwhelmingly empty. Agencies will track the approach closely, but no evasive action is expected to be needed.